莎粉们周一好，上周，英国国家统计局（Office For National Statistics）发布9月房价数据。从英国整体来看，在截至2022年9月的一年中，英国的平均房价增长了9.5%，低于2022年8月的年度增长率13.1%。截至9月，英国平均房价为：£294,559。
从不同的区域里看，威尔士的房价增长幅度最大，年度增长了12.9%；英格兰的房价年度上涨了9.6%；苏格兰房价年度上涨了7.3%；北爱尔兰的房价在截至2022年第三季度（7月至9月）的一年中增长10.7%。
本周《丽莎房产快讯》，我们为大家公布英国四个地区的9月数据以及房地产专家们对未来房产走势的分析。
英格兰
在截至2022年9月的一年中，英格兰的平均房价增长了9.6%，高于英国整体水平（9.5%），低于截至2022年8月的13.7%。其中，西南部是增长最快的地区，年度增长11.9%。增长最慢的地区是东北地区，该地区的房价年度增长5.8%。
在未经季节性调整的基础上，英格兰的平均房价在2022年8月至9月期间保持不变，而一年前的同一时期（2021年8月至9月）则增长了3.8%。在季节性调整的基础上，英格兰的平均房价在2022年8月至9月期间增加了0.1%。
截至9月，英格兰平均房价为 £314,278。
2022年9月，购买房产最贵的地区是Kensington and Chelsea，平均费用为140万英镑。相比之下，购买房产最便宜的地区是Burnley，那里的平均费用是11.7万英镑。
我们挑选了一些重点城市的数据给大家看看：
接下来，我们看看伦敦的数据。
2022年9月，大伦敦购买房产最贵的区是Kensington and Chelsea，其平均费用为140万英镑。相比之下，购买房产最便宜的区是Barking and Dagenham，其平均费用为35万英镑。
在整个英格兰，独立屋在所有房产类型中显示出最大的增幅，在截至2022年9月的一年中增长了11.4%，达到49.4万英镑。年度变化最小的是公寓和小套房，在截至2022年9月的一年中增长了4.9%，达到25.4万英镑。
威尔士
在截至2022年9月的一年中，威尔士的平均房价增长12.9%，低于8月的年度增长率（14.3%），高于英国的平均房价（9.5%），依旧是房价增长最高的地方。
在未经季节性调整的基础上，威尔士的平均房价月度（8月至9月）增长了2.0%，而一年前的同一时期增长了3.2%。在季节性调整的基础上，威尔士的平均房价月度增长2.8%。
截至9月，威尔士的平均房价为：£223,798。
从威尔士的数据可以看出，在截至2022年9月的一年中，所有行政区的平均房价都出现了增长。其中，Merthyr Tydfil显示出最强劲的增长，达到20.4%，当地平均房价达到15.7万英镑。相比之下，Newport 显示出最低的年度变化，年度增长了10.3%，平均房价为23.3万英镑。
2022年9月，购买房产最贵的地区是Monmouthshire，平均费用为36.4万英镑。相比之下，购买房产最便宜的地区是Blaenau Gwent，其平均费用为13.6万英镑。
在威尔士，半独立式房屋在所有房产类型中显示出最大的年度变化百分比，在截至2022年9月的一年中上涨了13.9%，达到21.8万英镑。平房和小套房的年度变化百分比最低，在截至2022年9月的一年中上升了7.0%，平均价格为13.8万英镑。
苏格兰
截至2022年9月的一年中，苏格兰的平均房价增长了7.3%，低于8月的年度增长（8.8%）。在未经季节性调整的基础上，苏格兰的平均房价月度下降0.9%，而一年前的同期则增长了0.4%。在季节性调整的基础上，苏格兰的平均房价月度下降了0.2%。
增长幅度最大的是Argyll and Bute，年度增长了25.0%，当地房产平均价格达到20.7万英镑。截至2022年9月，City of Aberdeen的年度百分比变化最低，平均价格在一年内下降了2.4%，当地房价约14.5万英镑。
2022年9月，购买房产最贵的地区是爱丁堡市，平均费用为33. 7万英镑。相比之下，购买房产最便宜的地区是 Inverclyde，其平均费用为13万英镑。
在苏格兰，独立屋在所有房产类型中显示出最大的年度百分比变化，在截至2022年9月的一年中上升了9.8%，达到346,000英镑。在所有房产类型中，年度变化最小的是公寓和小套房，在截至2022年9月的一年中，增加了4.4%，达到13万英镑。
北爱尔兰
上周，北爱尔兰2022年第三季度（2022年7月至9月）的房价指数正式出炉，数据显示：
北爱尔兰季度上涨4.1%：2022年第二季度（4月至6月）和第三季度（7月至9月），房价指数
从2021年第三季度至2022年第三季度，房价指数增长了10.7%。
目前，北爱尔兰的房屋平均价格为£176,131。
房产走势分析
9月数据显示，英国的平均房价在8月和9月之间停滞不前，年度增长也比之前放缓了。那么，接下来的房产市场会发生什么变化呢？
上周，英国预算责任办公室（OBR）称，预计未来两年英国的平均房价将下降9%。该部门预计房产价格下跌将发生在2022年第四季度至2024年第三季度之间，这在很大程度上将受到高昂的抵押贷款利率和经济衰退推动引发的。
不过，不同的房地产专家有着不同的见解，我们看看：
莱坊英国住宅研究主管汤姆比尔评论道：
“我们预计随着金融市场对新政府的积极反应，抵押贷款利率将下降，稳定感将回归。”
北伦敦房地产经纪人兼前 RICS 住宅主席 Jeremy Leaf 认为：
“价格应该继续受到库存不足的支撑，因为买家在迷你预算的影响会利用政策优惠来购买房产。”
房地产投资平台 IMMO 的联合创始人 Avinav Nigam 评论道：
“国家统计局发布的数据一般都是最可靠，因为它反映了来自政府官方数据的整个市场。然而，它也是发布最慢的数据。正如我们所看到的，9月后的几周内发生很多变化。利率上升和政治变化的影响将反映在未来的数据中。
预计房价增长放缓，部分地区房价下跌。这将特别受到利率上升的推动，此外，生活成本危机也将限制房主和投资者的购买力。
不过，房价不像股票市场那样容易崩盘，因为与股票和股票不同，住房是生活所必需的。我们很可能会看到价格调整。”
Alliance Fund 首席执行官 Iain Crawford 评论道：
“尽管几个月来动荡不安，但我们还没有看到房价显着下跌的任何真正迹象，现在政府已经稳定了，任何走势都可能是逐渐恢复正常，而不是纯粹的市场崩盘。”
HBB Solutions 总经理 Chris Hodgkinson 评论道：
“目前的所有指标都表明，在借贷成本大幅上升之后，购房者对购房者的行动力冷淡了，市场开始安静起来。买家需求水平的下降尚未导致房价实际下跌，但趋势开始转变，随着市场放缓一直持续到春季，我们可以预期房地产价格会尽快跟进。”
未来的房产市场究竟会如何呢？请大家持续关注《丽莎房产快讯》，我们会定期更新房产最新消息。
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