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工资涨幅创新高,物价通胀连下降!英国人的好日子来了?

近期,逛超市的莎粉可能会发现,英国连锁超市内的商品价格有了明显的回落,尤其是在奶制品、食用油等家庭生活必需品方面。

从宏观数据来看,英国的综合消费者价格指数(CPI)出现了明显的回落,这的确是件好事情,与此同时,英国的工资增速也创下了历史新高。

根据英国国家统计局(ONS)的数据,在4月-6月之间,英国的名义工资上涨速度为7.8%,这是自2001年有纪录以来的最高年增长率。

简单来看,不就是工资涨了、物价跌了,这几乎是每一个人都期待的事情。英国的生活成本危机真的结束了么?英国的好日子真的来了?

杂货通胀连续5个月走低,生活成本不断下降

关注超市销售和账单的凯度消费者指数(Kantar Worldpanel)的数据显示,虽然英国民众在食品和生活必需品的开支仍旧高于去年,但是今年夏天价格上涨的步伐一直在放缓。

简而言之,今年的物价虽然还在涨,但是涨得没有去年那么快了。

根据数据,截止至8月6日的过去4周,杂货商品通胀率为12.7%,比上个月下降2.2%。不仅如此,最近5个月以来,杂货通胀一直在不断走低。

这也使得商品的价格出现了一定程度的下降。其中,降价的商品包括:

1品脱牛奶:目前的均价为1.5英镑,在3月份为1.69英镑

葵花籽油:目前的每升的均价为2.19英镑,而在春天则为2.41英镑/升

凯度主管弗雷泽·麦凯维特(Fraser McKevitt)认为,最近一次价格上涨放缓是自2008年凯度开始以这种方式监测食品杂货通胀以来的第二大月度跌幅。

不仅仅是凯度的数据,英国零售商协会(BRC)的数据也表明英国近几个月的食品通胀正在下降,尤其是一些主食的价格。

尽管如此,根据测算与去年相比,一个典型的家庭在食品杂货等方面的开支平均每周要比去年增加5.13英镑。

从本质上来看,物价仍在上涨,但只是涨价的速度更慢了一点。

英格兰央行的首席经济学家休·皮尔(Huw Pill)在上周也曾表示,英国的食品可能永远不会回落到俄乌战争爆发之前的水平。

除此之外,随着俄罗斯退出黑海粮食协议,这将使得乌克兰的粮食难以从黑海路径运出;还有印度政府禁止出口某些品种大米的决定,都会对未来的食品价格产生深远的影响。

另一边,受到国际原油价格上涨的影响,英国的汽油价格也在上升,目前柴油的平均价格已经来到1.5061英镑,而上一次是高于这个价格还是在5月21日。

因此,现在也不能断言英国的物价就完全恢复到往昔的水平,恐怕日后还会有一些波动价格的因素出现。

工资水平飞涨!20多年来最快!

另一边,英国的工资水平也在上涨。

就像我们文章开头提到的,英国名义工资增长了7.8%。其中,私营公司雇员的工资增长率升至8.2%,这甚至超过了通胀的关键指标(7.9%)。

不过,公共事业岗位的薪水增幅相对没有那么明显,为6.2%。不过,这也是自2001年9月至11月以来的最高薪资涨幅阶段。

而这一薪资涨幅,还是在各行各业的长时间罢工下所达成的。尽管如此,公共事业岗位的薪水增幅其实也没有跑赢通胀。

在各项行业数据汇总中,金融和商业服务业薪水的年增长率最高,为9.4%;其次是制造业,为8.2%。

英国首相里希·苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)倒是对这一数字还是感到非常欣慰,他表示:对于数百苦苦挣扎于生活成本的人来说,隧道尽头出现了一丝曙光。

不过,从整体的数据来看,工资的增长水平没有完全超过物价上涨的速度,实际工资增长仍出现“小幅度”的下降。

蓝线:英国通胀走势     红线:英国名义工资变化

不过,英国当前的就业市场正处于疲软状态,失业率从4%上升至4.2%。

英国就业市场的职位空缺数量也再次出现下降,5月至7月期间减少了66,000个空缺岗位。尽管如此,英国仍有超过100万个职位是处于空缺状态的。

英国人的好日子真的来了吗?

看到这两条消息,可能会有很多人认为,英国人开始过好日子了吧。

毕竟名义工资水平提升,物价也开始出现了下降,这不是人人都梦想发生的场景吗?

虽然话是如此,但是结合目前英国的经济情况来看,恐怕目前的情况并没有想象中乐观。

因为,工资上涨其实是一把双刃剑。万神殿宏观经济公司首席英国经济学家塞缪尔·图姆斯 (Samuel Tombs)认为:目前,英国的工资水平上涨仍然较快。我们仍然预计货币政策委员会将在9月份将银行利率提高25个基点,然后在今年剩余的会议上将利率维持在5.50%。

可以说,强劲的工资增长可能会损害未来几个月的通胀回落。道理很简单,当人们的可支配收入增多,那么自然会选择消费,当消费过剩变成供小于求,同样会引发通胀。

这样一来,英格兰央行就不得不选择加息来控制通胀。

另一方面,虽然英国劳动力市场出现了降温,但是这并没有导致工资的增长放缓,面对这样的情况,英格兰央行再次加息的概率也提升了。

除此之外,英国7月的通胀数据将会在本周三公布,目前分析师认为英国7月的通胀数据将会再次下降,来到6.7%-7%之间,而6月的数据为7.9%。

即便是英国的7月的通胀数据可以回落至7%或7%以下,但这离英格兰央行2%的目标还相距甚远。

甚至有分析人士表示,英格兰央行在下次的货币政策会议(9月21日)上会选择继续加息。

加息虽然能抑制通胀,但也同样会抑制经济发展,对于英国目前脆弱的经济而言,如果继续加息,可能就会需要更长的时间去恢复和调整。

只能说,现在的情况(工资涨了、物价降了)只是让人们看到了一丝曙光。

好的,今天的文章就到这边,如果您对于文章内容,或者其他英国法律方面,有任何疑问,都欢迎进一步咨询丽莎律师行。

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